Home' Trinidad and Tobago Guardian : September 6th 2015 Contents A6
Sunday Guardian www.guardian.co.tt September 6, 2015
As voters gear up to head to the polls
tomorrow, the UWI Constitutional Affairs
and Parliamentary Studies Unit (Capsu)
poll is showing the People s Partnership
leading the race.
According to the poll, released last week,
the PP enjoys an overall lead of 6.9 per cent
over the People s National Movement (PNM)
in the marginals of La Horquetta/Talparo,
Point Fortin, St Joseph, Toco/Sangre Grande,
San Fernando West and Tunapuna.
However, the poll s constituency by con-
stituency breakdown shows the PNM has
a 3.9 per cent edge over the PP in the crucial
marginal of San Fernando West.
The PP has a clear lead in the other mar-
ginals---La Horquetta/Talparo (7.2 per cent),
Point Fortin (13 per cent), St Joseph (12.7
per cent), Toco/Sangre Grande (3.8 per cent),
and Tunapuna (8.3 per cent).
These six marginals are expected to be
the seats that will determine which party
triumphs at the polls to form the next gov-
The poll conducted by political scientist
and Capsu co-ordinator Dr Hamid Ghany
as lead analyst and Dr Maukesh Basdeo as
second analyst between August 21 and 24,
two weeks ago, said 42.3 per cent of its
respondents indicated that if a general elec-
tion were called tomorrow, they would vote
for the PP, while 35.4 per cent said they
would vote for the PNM.
A mere 5.4 per cent of respondents said
they would vote for the Independent Liberal
Party (ILP) even though the party is not
fielding a candidate in each of those con-
stituencies, while 7.5 per cent said they were
not sure which party they would vote for,
and 9.1 per cent said they did not know for
whom they would vote.
The poll also found that PP leader Kamla
Persad-Bissessar still enjoyed an edge over
PNM political leader Dr Keith Rowley as
the preferred choice for prime minister.
According to the poll, when asked if a
general election were to be held tomorrow
whom they would like to see elected as
prime minister, 42.4 per cent of respondents
said Persad Bissessar. Rowley received 35.3
per cent, and Jack Warner received 5.5 per
cent. However, 12.6 per cent of respondents
said they were not sure whom they would
like to see, while 4.0 per cent said they did
not know and 0.2 per cent said other.
The poll found that among respondents
the key factors influencing voters were party
loyalty (18.4 per cent), party manifestos (18.3
per cent), and political leader (17.3 per cent).
Some 14.2 per cent of respondents indi-
cated that the candidate in their area would
influence their votes, while 16.8 per cent
said the need for change would influence
their vote, and 10.3 per cent said the need
to retain the government was a factor that
would influence them the most.
The question if the general election were held
tomorrow, which group or party would you vote for,
was asked in all six constituencies and in five the PP
had the lead over the PNM.
In La Horquetta/Talparo, 43.6 per cent said the
PP, 36.4 per cent said PNM, 4.2 per cent said ILP
(even though the party is not fielding a candidate)
and 3.4 per cent said they were not sure. Some 12.5
per cent said they did not know whom they would
In Point Fortin, 48.2 per cent said PP, 35.2 per cent
said PNM, 4.4 per cent said ILP (even though there
is no candidate) and 4.2 per cent said they were not
sure. Some 7.0 per cent said they did not know whom
they would vote for.
In San Fernando West, 40.9 per cent of respondents
said PNM, 37.0 per cent said PP and 7.3 per cent
said ILP, while 14.1 per cent said did not know or
The PP commanded the lead in St Joseph with
44.3 per cent, followed by the PNM with 31.6 per
cent and the ILP with 7.4 per cent even though that
party said it would not field a candidate there, and
16.8 per cent being not sure or did not know.
In Toco/Sangre Grande, 43.3 per cent said they
would vote for the PP, 39.5 per cent said they would
vote for the PNM and 2.0 per cent for the ILP. A
total of 15.1 per cent were not sure or did not know.
In Tunapuna, 37.1 per cent said they would vote
for PP, 28.8 per cent the PNM and 7.0 per cent for
ILP, whereas some 18.4 per cent of respondents said
they were not sure, 8.3 per cent did not know, and
0.3 per cent did not state.
Both Toco/Sangre and San Fernando West, accord-
ing to Ghany, were too close to call because their
spreads fell inside the margin of error, while the other
four were leaning to the PP.
Demographics and methodology
In the poll, 62.0 per cent of the respondents were
female, while 38.0 per cent were male. In terms of
ethnicity, 39.2 per cent of those polled were Africans,
38.3 per cent were East Indians, 21.7 per cent were
mixed, and 0.8 per cent did not state their ethnicity.
The poll was conducted among 2,328 respondents
in the six constituencies using the face-to-face ran-
dom sample intercept method in selected polling divi-
sions and the margin of error for the cluster of six
constituencies was +/- 3 per cent and for these six
marginal constituencies individually it ranged be-
tween +/- 4.89 and 4.91.
...Toco/Sangre Grande, Sando West too close to call
PP, Kamla lead the race
Which party would you vote for?
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