Home' Trinidad and Tobago Guardian : October 20th 2013 Contents A9
October 20, 2013 www.guardian.co.tt Sunday Guardian
• From Page A8
It was apparent that more people
felt its performance was "Poor/Very
Poor" (57.6 per cent) than those who
felt that it was "Good/Very good"
(24.9 per cent).
The critical statistic was the 17.3
per cent "Fair" response rate it
Comparatively speaking, the
PNM s performance as an opposition
had a higher negative rating than
the performance of the Government
(46.0 per cent compared to 57.6 per
This could make a case for a third
party to emerge.
11. Do you believe the ILP can
become a major force in the
politics of T&T?
Ye s ---34.6 per cent
No---27.6 per cent
Don't know---21.3 per cent
Not sure---16.6 per cent
This question about the ILP and
the perception of respondents in St
Joseph was based on the fact that
the party had won the Chaguanas
West by-election in July.
It is apparent that there is a sub-
stantial body of opinion (34.6 per
cent) that thinks that the ILP can
become a major force in politics,
while there is enough doubt in the
minds of respondents (Don t
know/Not sure-37.9 per cent) to
suggest that a concluded view has
not been formed just yet.
That unsure element appears to
be deciding whether there is a future
for the ILP in national politics, while
a clear 27.6 per cent is firm in the
view that the ILP will not be a major
force in the politics of the country.
One does not know the extent to
which the performance of the ILP
representative in the nationally-tele-
vised debate may have affected these
12. Does it matter to you that
Jack Warner belonged to the
Government for three years
before he formed the ILP?
Ye s ---86.2 per cent
No---6.3 per cent
Don't know---4.8 per cent
Not sure---2.7 per cent
The centrepiece of the ILP cam-
paign has been the personality of
Jack Warner. It is a matter of public
record that he was a member of the
People s Partnership Government
before he parted ways with it offi-
cially on July 5 and won the Chagua-
nas West by-election on July 29.
This question attempted to probe,
in a non-partisan way, whether his
involvement with the People s Part-
nership Government for three years
before his formation of the ILP was
something that mattered at all to
the respondents in the survey.
There is no doubt that Warner is
a factor in the minds of people in
the St Joseph constituency (86.2 per
cent). All other responses are sta-
tistically insignificant (No-6.3 per
cent, Don t know-4.8 per cent and
Not sure-2.7 per cent).
This confirms the hypothesis that
one way or another (positive or neg-
ative) Warner has become a major
factor on the political landscape of
the St Joseph constituency.
13. Which party candidate will
you vote for in the by-election
on November 4?
PP---31.2 per cent
ILP---24.6 per cent
PNM---31.4 per cent
MSJ---1.2 per cent
Don't know---7.0 per cent
Not sure---4.3 per cent
Will not say-0.2 per cent
Not voting---0.2 per cent
The question of voter preference
ahead of the St Joseph by-election
was tested in a partially hypothetical
environment, as only the identity of
the PNM candidate was known at
the time of the survey.
There is a statistical dead heat
between the PNM and the PP, with
the PNM fractionally ahead 31.4 per
cent to 31.2 per cent.
The ILP was the choice of a very
significant number of respondents,
with a rating of 24.6 per cent.
The undecided voters who
responded by saying "Don t
know/Not sure" accounted for 11.3
per cent, while all other responses
were statistically insignificant.
In assessing the responses to this
question, one has to take into
account the impact of the nation-
ally-televised debate that took place
on the evening before the start of
this data-gathering exercise and the
opening of the Grand Bazaar inter-
change during the period of the data
The naming of the PNM candidate
ahead of all other parties and the
ongoing conduct of the local gov-
ernment elections campaign would
also have to be considered in the
assessment of these responses.
With a margin of error of +/- 4
per cent, it is apparent that this is
a close race.
14. In casting your vote, what will
be your main reason for your
Political leader---12.5 per cent
Candidate---9.5 per cent
Party loyalty---16.9 per cent
Need for change---40.0 per
Need to retain the
Government---17.3 per cent
Don't know---1.7 per cent
Not sure---1.8 per cent
In examining the choices of the
respondents, their responses in
respect of their motivation were
The largest response was the
"Need for change" which accounted
for 40.0 per cent of the survey.
The second largest response was
the "Need to retain the Government"
which got a rating of 17.3 per cent.
Party loyalty (16.9 per cent) was
the third highest rating and the
"Political leader" (12.5 per cent) was
the fourth highest rating.
The choice of candidate earned a
9.5 per cent rating, while "Don t
know/Not sure" accounted for 3.5
per cent combined.
The high rating given to the need
for change (40.0 per cent) might be
diluted in a three-party race between
two strong opposing parties under
the first-past-the-post system of
Given the fact that the second
highest response "Need to retain the
Government" (17.3 per cent) can only
apply to the PP Government, it
would appear that this might become
competitive in a three-way contest.
15. People choosing the People's
Partnership classified by
Afro---3.0 per cent
Indo---21.8 per cent
Mixed---10.6 per cent
Syrian/Lebanese---0.3 per cent
16. People choosing the ILP
classified by ethnicity
Afro---8.0 per cent
Indo---10.4 per cent
Mixed---9.5 per cent
17. People choosing the PNM
classified by ethnicity
Afro---21.9 per cent
Indo---2.6 per cent
Mixed---0.9 per cent
18. People choosing the MSJ
classified by ethnicity
Afro---0.2 per cent
Mixed---0.8 per cent
In analysing the preferences of
respondents by ethnicity in this
multi-ethnic constituency, it is
apparent that the ILP is making
almost equal inroads into traditional
UNC and PNM voter blocs.
Traditionally, the UNC (represent-
ing the PP here) has been able to
win a large majority of Indo-Trinida-
Traditionally, the PNM has been
able to win a majority of Afro-
Mixed-race voters have not had
a clear preference ratio when com-
pared to Afro- and Indo-voters.
The presence of the ILP has
caused almost evenly balanced
responses across ethnicities in their
choice of this party when cross-tab-
ulations were undertaken for the 525
questionnaires of the 602 that were
The split between the Afro-voters
preference for the PNM (21.9 per
cent) and the Indo-voters preference
for the PP (21.8 per cent) virtually
offset each other.
The split between the PNM and
the PP among mixed-race voters
was PNM (10.9 per cent) and the
PP (10.6 per cent).
In such a situation of virtual even
weightings between two competitors,
the impact of the third party
becomes vitally important.
The ILP s rating with Afro-
respondents (8.0 per cent), with
Indo-respondents (10.4 per cent),
and with Mixed-race respondents
(9.5 per cent) would suggest that the
other responses that were statistically
insignificant, relatively speaking,
could earn a higher value based on
the likely closeness of the contest.
Both the PNM and the PP appear
to have lost support to the ILP in
almost equal numbers across the
As a consequence, the outcome
of the by-election remains too close
(See editorial on Page A24)
GUARDIAN MEDIA LTD POLL---ST JOSEPH BY-ELECTION
ILP making inroads in all areas
Links Archive October 19th 2013 October 21st 2013 Navigation Previous Page Next Page