Home' Trinidad and Tobago Guardian : June 22nd 2014 Contents JUNE 22 • 2014 www.guardian.co.tt SUNDAY BUSINESS GUARDIAN
NEWS | SBG7
At a forecast
growth rate of
2.2 per cent in
2014, and 2.3
per cent in
2015, the T&T
see low infla-
tion of 4.5 per cent per year for the
next two years, global economists sur-
veyed by Barcelona-based FocusEco-
nomics have said.
T&T closed 2013 with 5.6 per cent
inflation which was down from the
previous year s 7.2 per cent.
FocusEconomics Consensus Fore-
casts for Central America and the
Caribbean June 2014, released Tuesday
(June 17), presents mean averages of
projections of economic forecasters
The average responses in the survey
predicted that T&T s fiscal balance
will worsen to -2.3 per cent of gross
domestic product (GDP) in 2015, and
its current account, as a percentage
of GDP, will improve by 9.3 per cent
in 2014, before slipping to 8.6 per cent
At 2.2 per cent in 2014 and 2.3 per
cent in 2015, T&T will have the fourth
weakest growth rate in Central America
and the Caribbean, economists forecast
in the survey said. In the Caribbean
in 2014, the economists forecast that
only Jamaica with 1.2 per cent, and
Puerto Rico with -0.8 per cent would
grow slower than T&T.
In Central America, only El Sal-
vador s economy will be slower than
T&T s, growing at a rate of 1.9 per
cent in 2014.
T&T is expected to tie with Belize
at the 2.2 per cent growth rate in 2014.
In 2015, T&T s growth rate is projected
to be better than Jamaica s with 1.6
per cent, Puerto Rico s with -0.3 per
cent and El Salvador with 2.1 per cent.
Belize is projected to grow 2.6 per cent
in its tiebreaker from T&T in 2015.
Economists surveyed forecasted
T&T s GDP per capita will rise to
US$21,003 in 2015, up from their 2014
estimate of US$19,763. The economists
estimated that T&T s GDP per capita
in 2013 was US$18,531. T&T s GDP per
capita will be the highest in Central
America and the Caribbean, according
to the economists.
Consumption in T&T is projected
to increase by 2.7 per cent in 2014 and
3.2 per cent in 2015. Investment in the
T&T economy is projected to grow by
4.5 per cent in 2014 and 4.8 per cent
in 2015. Investment grew in 2013 by
4.0 per cent, according to the econ-
The economists see T&T as having
unemployment remain stable at 5 per
cent in 2014 and 2015. In 2014, they
estimate that T&T will have the third
lowest unemployment rate in Central
America and the Caribbean. Lower
than T&T will be Panama with 4.2
per cent (2014) and 4.6 per cent (2015)
and Guatemala with 3.3 per cent both
The low interest rate environment
will persist in T&T in 2014 and 2015.
From the 4.8 per cent at which it
closed 2013, the average interest rate
in T&T will fall to 2.3 per cent in 2014
and 2015, the economists said, making
T&T the country with the lowest inter-
est rates in Central America and the
The economists surveyed said they
expect the TT dollar to strengthen 0.2
per cent in 2014 and weaken 0.5 per
cent in 2015, which was the same level
of weakness seen in 2013.
T&T s exports are projected to con-
tinue to grow in 2014 by 1.5 per cent,
and in 2015 by 2.9 per cent. T&T will
therefore have the second weakest
export growth in Central America and
Lower than T&T will be only Puerto
Rico with 0.8 per cent growth in
exports in 2014.
Imports, which according to the
economists contracted 0.4 per cent in
2013, are expected to grow 0.9 per
cent in 2014 and 1.8 per cent in 2015.
T&T will maintain the highest inter-
national reserves in Central America
and the Caribbean. The economists
forecast the country will have 12.4
months of import cover in 2014 and
12.6 months in 2015. The second high-
est reserves in the Caribbean basin
will be held by Haiti at six months of
The economists also forecast that
T&T s repo rate will slide to 2.25 per
cent in 2014 and 2015, from the 2.75
per cent it was in 2013.
The economists said the TT dollar
is expected to remain stable at $6.46
in 2014 and $6.47 in 2015.
Source: National Central Banks
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